Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored.9–8
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–8
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 29–8
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 19–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–8
- 10Caballero homered to left center (381 feet), DeLuca scored.9–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 19–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–7
- 9Caminero homered to center (418 feet).7–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 8Díaz sacrificed into double play, left to left to second, J. Lowe scored, Jackson thrown out at second, Caballero to third.6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 7Rojas homered to left (367 feet).5–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Ohtani homered to right (338 feet), Rojas scored.5–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 5Rojas singled to left, Muncy scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5J. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to right, Caminero scored, Carlson to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 4T. Hernández homered to center (403 feet), Betts scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Betts doubled to left, Ohtani scored.4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML TB +180 / LAD -215
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -191
- TB +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +78 Elo | LAD 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 42–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–68 | 64–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–41 | 56–55 |
| Underdog | 37–27 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 59–69 | 68–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–2 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.