Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 4Rivas singled to right, Rojas scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Arozarena homered to right (376 feet), Rodríguez scored and Raleigh scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Polanco homered to right (341 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2J. Lowe homered to right center (437 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML TB +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +24 Elo | SEA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 39–276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–69 | 51–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 23–41 | 31–56 |
| Underdog | 38–28 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–70 | 57–70–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–4 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.