Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arozarena homered to left center (430 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Carlson singled to center, B. Lowe scored, Morel to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Rodríguez homered to left (356 feet), Crawford scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 31–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Robles homered to left center (385 feet), Moore scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Raley hit sacrifice fly to left, Arozarena scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2J. Lowe homered to right center (374 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML TB +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- TB +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–32 | Road vs home | 40–286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–70 | 52–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–41 | 32–56 |
| Underdog | 38–29 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–71 | 57–71–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–5 SEA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.