San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado singled to center, Winn scored, Scott II to second.3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Higashioka homered to left (371 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Goldschmidt singled to center, Baker scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Donovan grounded out to shortstop, Arenado scored, Baker to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Baker doubled to left, Burleson scored, Arenado to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Bogaerts struck out swinging, Cronenworth stole home, Machado stole second.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Machado singled to center, Arraez scored, Cronenworth to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML SD -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- SD: Elo 56.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +8 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +45 Elo | SD 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–26 | Road vs home | 33–3218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–63 | 63–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–48 | 19–42 |
| Underdog | 36–15 | 44–26 |
| Overs–unders | 74–59–1 | 63–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–5 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.