San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Herrera singled to center, Nootbaar scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Winn homered to left (382 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Merrill homered to center (419 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Goldschmidt doubled to left, Arenado scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Baker grounded out to shortstop, Burleson scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML SD -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- STL: Elo 43.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +46 Elo | SD 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–27 | Road vs home | 34–3218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–64 | 64–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–49 | 19–42 |
| Underdog | 36–15 | 45–26 |
| Overs–unders | 74–60–1 | 63–67–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–6 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.