Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Scott BlewettPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walls hit sacrifice fly to left, Caballero scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 7Wallner singled to center, Helman scored.4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 7Santana homered to left (370 feet), Larnach scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 7Farmer homered to left (389 feet).1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 4Díaz homered to center (423 feet), Walls scored.0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Walls singled to center, Caballero scored and Rortvedt scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Rortvedt grounded into fielder's choice to second, Carlson scored, Caballero to second, Rortvedt second, Caballero safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Lewis.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Caballero singled to left, DeLuca scored, Carlson to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4DeLuca grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Caminero scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third on pickoff error by pitcher Varland.0–1
- 4B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third on pickoff error by pitcher Varland.0–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / TB +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −11 | MIN: Ronny Henriquez (no track record yet) · TB: Cole Sulser (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +13 Elo | MIN 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 36–3721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–71 | 63–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 39–53 | 24–44 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders | 70–67 | 65–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–8 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.