Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lewis homered to left (361 feet), Jeffers scored and Martin scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Loperfido grounded out to shortstop, Clement scored, Jimenez to second, Barger to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Jimenez hit by pitch, Lukes scored, Barger to second, Clement to third.2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Santana grounded out to third, Lewis scored, Lee to second.1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Clement homered to left center (415 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 70%
- ML TOR +220 / MIN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.9%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -234
- TOR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +48 Elo | MIN 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–38 | Road vs home | 38–3011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–68 | 64–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 39–52 |
| Underdog | 42–29 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 75–61–1 | 69–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–8 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.
- Aug 31TOR 15 @ MIN 0Picked MIN 57%Miss
- Aug 30TOR 0 @ MIN 2Picked MIN 62%Hit
- May 12MIN 5 @ TOR 1Picked MIN 52%Hit
- May 11MIN 8 @ TOR 10Picked TOR 57%Hit
- May 10MIN 3 @ TOR 2Picked TOR 52%Miss
- Oct 4TOR 0 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Hit
- Oct 3TOR 1 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked MIN 52%Hit
- Jun 11MIN 6 @ TOR 7Picked TOR 53%Hit