Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jorge SolerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Manuel MargotBatting2-4
- David FestaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Williams doubled to left, Murphy scored and Arcia scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Laureano singled to right, Olson scored, Laureano to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Olson doubled to center, Ozuna scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Castro singled to center, Jeffers scored, Miranda to second.1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Soler homered to center (431 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -150 / MIN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- MIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +1 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +4 Elo | ATL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 8th of 3036–32 | Road vs home | 37–289th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–70 | 63–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–60 | 38–51 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 48–80–3 | 68–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–0 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.