Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting3-6, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Larnach singled to right, Miranda scored, Castro to third.8–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 10Miranda singled to left, Kepler scored.8–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 10Laureano doubled to center, d'Arnaud scored and Olson scored.8–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 10d'Arnaud singled to center, Williams scored, Olson to second.6–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 10Olson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kelenic scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Larnach singled to center, Castro scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Julien doubled to right, Wallner scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Wallner singled to right, Larnach scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Larnach doubled to left, Castro scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Ozuna singled to left, Arcia scored and Laureano scored, Soler to second.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Harris II homered to right (424 feet), Olson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML ATL -110 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 37–278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–70 | 63–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–60 | 38–50 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 47–80–3 | 67–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–0 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.