Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Williams scored on error, Harris II safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Abrams.2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Arcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Urshela scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Chaparro doubled to center, Ruiz scored and Yepez scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Harris II homered to center (410 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML WSH +215 / ATL -265
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.8%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -229
- WSH +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +99 Elo | ATL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–37 | Road vs home | 34–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–58 | 58–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 42–58 |
| Underdog | 59–42 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 64–63–1 | 46–77–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 11–10 ATL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.