Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Abrams homered to right center (394 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Rodgers scored on error, Beck safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Tena, Jones to second.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Jones singled to center, Doyle scored, Rodgers to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1McMahon singled to left, Tovar scored, Doyle to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML COL +130 / WSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +68 Elo | WSH 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–46 | Road vs home | 28–3227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–59 | 68–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 61–53 | 59–42 |
| Overs–unders | 66–55 | 63–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–6 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.