Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jacob StallingsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Juan YepezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stallings homered to center (390 feet), Toglia scored.3–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Yepez homered to center (404 feet), L. García Jr. scored and Tena scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 6Tena singled to center, Ruiz scored, L. García Jr. to second.1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6L. García Jr. singled to right, Wood scored, Ruiz to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Ruiz doubled to left, Abrams scored, Ruiz to second, Wood to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Doyle homered to left center (406 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Wood singled to center, Gallo scored and Call scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML COL +120 / WSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -130
- COL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +67 Elo | WSH 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–47 | Road vs home | 29–3326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–60 | 69–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 62–54 | 59–42 |
| Overs–unders | 66–57 | 63–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–7 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.