Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Scott BlewettPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wallner homered to right center (376 feet).10–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–6
- 8Farmer homered to left center (379 feet).10–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 210–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–5
- 7Lewis hit sacrifice fly to center, Vázquez scored, Wallner to third.10–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–4
- 6Arcia scored on Richards wild pitch.10–3
- 6Arcia scored on Richards wild pitch.10–3
- 5Margot singled to left, Wallner scored, Martin to third.9–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 5Martin reached on infield single to third, Castro scored, Wallner to third.9–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 2d'Arnaud homered to left (439 feet), Olson scored.9–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 2Olson doubled to right, Ozuna scored and Soler scored.7–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 2Ozuna doubled to left, Merrifield scored, Soler to third.5–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 1Miranda hit sacrifice fly to left, Margot scored.4–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 1Olson homered to right center (423 feet), Soler scored and Ozuna scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML ATL +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +11 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +28 Elo | MIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 37–267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–70 | 63–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–60 | 38–49 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 46–80–3 | 66–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–0 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.