Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams reached on infield single to second, Young scored, Abrams to second.5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Abrams singled to right, Young scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Young doubled to left, Millas scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Ruiz scored on Jackson wild pitch, Millas to third on wild pitch by Jackson.2–1
- 7Ruiz scored on Jackson wild pitch, Millas to third on wild pitch by Jackson.2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 6Olson homered to center (429 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Chaparro grounded into double play, pitcher to second to first to shortstop to first, Wood scored, L. García Jr. out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML WSH +165 / ATL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +17 | WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +102 Elo | ATL 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–39 | Road vs home | 36–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–59 | 59–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 43–59 |
| Underdog | 60–43 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 64–65–1 | 46–79–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 11–12 ATL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.