Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jose TenaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Laureano homered to center (430 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 32–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6d'Arnaud singled to center, Olson scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Olson doubled to right, Merrifield scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Arcia homered to left (363 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Tena homered to right center (394 feet), Ruiz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML WSH +135 / ATL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −13 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +59 Elo | ATL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–38 | Road vs home | 35–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–58 | 58–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 42–59 |
| Underdog | 60–42 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 64–64–1 | 46–78–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 11–11 ATL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.