Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Danny JansenBatting1-3
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Clement doubled to left, Barger scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Serven scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML TOR +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 3.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −2 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +11 Elo | BOS 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 31–3727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–67 | 60–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 23–49 |
| Underdog | 40–28 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–59–1 | 70–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–13 BOS in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.