Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward homered to center (405 feet).1–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Guerrero Jr. homered to center (414 feet).0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Loperfido doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Varsho scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML LAA +165 / TOR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.8%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -177
- LAA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | LAA: Carson Fulmer: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +62 Elo | TOR 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–35 | Road vs home | 32–3320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–61 | 64–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 62–37 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 62–67 | 72–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–9 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.