Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Niko KavadasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kavadas homered to left (360 feet), Adell scored and Thaiss scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 2Springer grounded out to third, Loperfido scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Clement homered to left (380 feet), Wagner scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Wagner singled to center, Kirk scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Kirk doubled to left, Horwitz scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML LAA +125 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | LAA: Brock Burke (no track record yet) · TOR: Ryan Burr (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +59 Elo | TOR 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 30–3325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–60 | 63–64 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 61–36 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 61–66 | 71–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–7 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.