Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Joey LoperfidoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger homered to right center (439 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 9Loperfido homered to center (400 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Kirk singled to left, Varsho scored, Horwitz to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Clement singled to right, Horwitz scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Kirk grounded out to third, Varsho scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Ward singled to right, Adell scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Adell doubled to center, Kavadas scored and Rendon scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Rendon doubled to left, Pillar scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML LAA +165 / TOR -195
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- LAA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +66 Elo | TOR 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 31–3322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–61 | 64–64 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 61–37 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 61–67 | 71–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–8 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.