Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Neill homered to right (319 feet).7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 9Perdomo homered to right (319 feet).7–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 37–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 6Suárez homered to left (371 feet), Smith scored and Del Castillo scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5McCarthy singled to left, Guillorme scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Suárez scored, Guillorme to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Perdomo grounded out to first, Del Castillo scored, Guillorme to second, Suárez to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Devers homered to center (418 feet), Abreu scored and Casas scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Casas homered to right center (420 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML ARI +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −6 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +27 Elo | ARI 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–30 | Road vs home | 29–3527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–60 | 58–71 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–35 | 21–47 |
| Underdog | 43–25 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–55–1 | 68–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.