Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy grounded out to second, Perdomo scored.12–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–2
- 9Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Guillorme scored, Perdomo to third.11–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 9Perdomo doubled to right, Suárez scored, Guillorme to third.10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Suárez homered to left (349 feet), Pederson scored, Bell scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 6Refsnyder homered to right center (395 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Perdomo reached on infield single to shortstop, Suárez scored, Guillorme to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Guillorme doubled to center, Del Castillo scored, Suárez to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 6Suárez singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Del Castillo to second.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 1Abreu doubled to left, Duran scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored, Pederson to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Bell walked, Carroll scored, Pederson to second, McCarthy to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML ARI +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +4 Elo | ARI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–30 | Road vs home | 29–3327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–60 | 58–69 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–35 | 21–45 |
| Underdog | 41–25 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–54–1 | 67–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.