Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Will WagnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Varsho homered to center (424 feet).3–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Wagner homered to right center (382 feet).2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Abreu singled to right, Casas scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Casas doubled to right, Hamilton scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Hamilton singled to right, Rafaela scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Barger hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Yoshida singled to center, Casas scored and Abreu scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML TOR +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +16 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +37 Elo | BOS 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 29–3727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–65 | 58–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 21–49 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–57–1 | 70–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–11 BOS in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.