Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Barger scored, Loperfido to third.2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 8Loperfido grounded into fielder's choice to first, Jimenez scored, Springer out at second, Barger to third.2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 8Drury homered to left (365 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Kirk homered to left center (395 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Barger homered to right (388 feet), Wagner scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Springer scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Neto singled to left, Ward scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Kirk walked, Schneider scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Barger to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 40–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML LAA +140 / TOR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +69 Elo | TOR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3027–36 | Road vs home | 33–3319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–62 | 65–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 62–38 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 62–68 | 72–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–10 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.