Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Horwitz singled to left, Clement scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 9Guerrero Jr. scored on error, Kirk safe at first on error by pitcher Martin.6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Duran homered to center (422 feet), Hamilton scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Clement doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Barger to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Barger singled to left, Loperfido scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Springer homered to right (354 feet), Jimenez scored and Berroa scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Casas singled to left, Duran scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML TOR +135 / BOS -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- TOR +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Zack Kelly: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3030–35 | Road vs home | 29–3627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–65 | 58–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 21–48 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–57–1 | 69–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 8–11 BOS in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.