Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-3
- Chris BassittPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Neill homered to left center (405 feet), Hamilton scored.0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Abreu singled to left, Duran scored, Casas to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML TOR +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −7 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 30–3727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–66 | 59–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 22–49 |
| Underdog | 40–27 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–58–1 | 70–60–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–12 BOS in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.