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Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast

FinalTVA, Sportsnet, FanDuel SN North, Sportsnet+, MLB.TV

Away

Blue Jays

67-71

15–0

at

Home

Twins

73-62

TOR 43%MIN 57%

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Target Field · TVA, Sportsnet, FanDuel SN North, Sportsnet+, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.

MIN75%50%75%TORStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • Will WagnerBatting5-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Twins
  • Willi CastroBatting1-2
  • Scott BlewettPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Wagner doubled to right, Barger scored, Kirk to third.15–0
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–0
  • 8Jimenez singled to center, Lukes scored.14–0
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–0
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball 114–0
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–0
  • 8Lukes tripled to center, Wagner scored.13–0
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–0
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 113–0
  • 6Wagner homered to right (419 feet).12–0
  • 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–0
  • 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul12–0
  • 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–0
  • 3Horwitz singled to center, Varsho scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.11–0
  • 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–0
  • 3Pitch 5 : Ball 311–0
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball 211–0
  • 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–0
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 111–0
  • 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
  • 3Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Jimenez scored, Varsho to third.10–0
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
  • 2Barger homered to right center (395 feet), Horwitz scored.9–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–0
  • 1Jimenez singled to left, Wagner scored and Lukes scored.7–0
  • 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
  • 1Lukes hit a ground rule double, Kirk scored, Wagner to third.5–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
  • 1Horwitz homered to right (381 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.4–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
  • 1Varsho homered to center (419 feet), Springer scored.2–0
  • 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Twins 57%

LeanMiss
TOR 43%MIN 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
MIN 57%
ML TOR +120 / MIN -145
Pre-line forecast
MIN 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 56%
Ratings vs. market
−0.6 pts
MIN: Elo 56.0%, market 56.6%
Fair odds
MIN -130
TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 4.0 – 4.5 MIN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORMINWhy
Team rating14981527Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+8+3TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +42 EloMIN 56.0%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 58.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 58.4%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 56.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatMIN
22nd of 304.2Runs scored4.88th of 30
23rd of 304.6Runs allowed4.414th of 30
25th of 30−0.5Margin+0.510th of 30
6th of 306–4Last 103–725th of 30
21st of 3032–38Road vs home38–298th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysTwins
14001450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORMIN
Run line68–6864–69
Last 105–53–7
Favorite27–3939–51
Underdog41–2925–18
Overs–unders74–61–168–65
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 4–8 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.