Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Castro hit sacrifice fly to left, Santana scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Santana singled to right, Miranda scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML TOR +150 / MIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- TOR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +34 Elo | MIN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 37–2911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–67 | 63–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 38–51 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 74–60–1 | 68–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–7 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- May 12MIN 5 @ TOR 1Picked MIN 52%Hit
- May 11MIN 8 @ TOR 10Picked TOR 57%Hit
- May 10MIN 3 @ TOR 2Picked TOR 52%Miss
- Oct 4TOR 0 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Hit
- Oct 3TOR 1 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked MIN 52%Hit
- Jun 11MIN 6 @ TOR 7Picked TOR 53%Hit
- Jun 10MIN 9 @ TOR 4Picked TOR 53%Miss
- Jun 9MIN 3 @ TOR 2Picked TOR 54%Miss