Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Driscoll singled to right, Aranda scored on error, Caballero to second, Driscoll to second, Caballero safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Helman.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Aranda singled to center, Caminero scored, J. Lowe to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Santana homered to left (395 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML MIN -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- TB: Elo 52.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +20 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +14 Elo | TB 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3036–32 | Road vs home | 35–3722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–71 | 63–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 39–53 | 24–43 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders | 70–66 | 65–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–7 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.