Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8DeLuca homered to left (365 feet).5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Lee homered to center (409 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 3Caminero doubled to center, B. Lowe scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 2Larnach homered to right (368 feet), Julien scored and Vázquez scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 1Carlson singled to right, Caminero scored and J. Lowe scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Lewis doubled to left, Larnach scored, Miranda to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +3 Elo | MIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 35–3621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–71 | 63–72 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–53 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders | 69–66 | 64–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–7 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.