Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting1-4
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel hit sacrifice fly to left, Blanco scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Renfroe singled to left, Witt Jr. scored and Melendez scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Massey homered to right (408 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pham doubled to left, Isbel scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML MIN +120 / KC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- KC: Elo 53.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +3 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +22 Elo | KC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 42–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–73 | 77–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–55 | 34–35 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 43–27 |
| Overs–unders | 72–67 | 64–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 16–7 KC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.