Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Tommy PhamBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4
- Marcus StromanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Garcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Blanco scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pham homered to left center (392 feet).4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Perez singled to center, Isbel scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Perez out stretching at second.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Witt Jr. singled to left, Isbel scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML KC +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +32 Elo | NYY 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 38–3113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–63 | 75–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–35 | 49–62 |
| Underdog | 44–28 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 65–77–1 | 81–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–8 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.