New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grisham homered to right (375 feet), Cabrera scored, Trevino scored and Torres scored.6–10
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–10
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 36–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–10
- 7Langford singled to right, Duran scored.2–10
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 7Duran doubled to right, Taveras scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 6Lowe scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, García to third on wild pitch by Leiter Jr..2–8
- 6Lowe scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, García to third on wild pitch by Leiter Jr..2–8
- 6García doubled to left, Smith scored and Langford scored, Lowe to third.2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Soto homered to left (350 feet), Torres scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Lowe singled to right, Langford scored, Lowe to second.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Langford doubled to right, Jankowski scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / TEX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +12 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +1 Elo | NYY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–27 | Road vs home | 37–3317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–65 | 56–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 46–60 | 25–55 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 31–28 |
| Overs–unders | 79–57–1 | 64–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–6 TEX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.