New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heim grounded out to shortstop, Jung scored, Langford to third.8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Stanton homered to center (418 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Langford homered to left (410 feet), Jung scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Chisholm Jr. scored on C. Anderson wild pitch, Rizzo to third on wild pitch by C. Anderson.7–1
- 6Chisholm Jr. scored on C. Anderson wild pitch, Rizzo to third on wild pitch by C. Anderson.7–1
- 6Rizzo hit a ground rule double, Judge scored and Wells scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Soto scored, Wells to second, Judge to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Judge doubled to shortstop, Torres scored, Soto to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Smith doubled to center, Semien scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Torres doubled to left, Verdugo scored and Volpe scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML NYY -190 / TEX +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -170
- TEX +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −16 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3042–26 | Road vs home | 36–3216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–64 | 55–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 45–59 | 25–55 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders | 77–57–1 | 62–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–5 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.