Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Sammy PeraltaPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Seager singled to center, Taveras scored, Semien to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Sosa singled to center, Robert Jr. scored, Benintendi to second.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Langford homered to left center (409 feet), Lowe scored and Jung scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Benintendi doubled to center, Robert Jr. scored and Lopez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 64%
- ML TEX -200 / CHW +165
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.8%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | +5 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Matt Foster (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +69 Elo | TEX 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–40 | Road vs home | 18–4930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–78 | 59–73 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 24–51 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 30–27 | 53–70 |
| Overs–unders | 60–71–1 | 62–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–1 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.