Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Corey JulksBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager singled to right, Heim scored, Semien to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Semien doubled to left, Langford scored, Heim to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Julks singled to right, Vargas scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1García doubled to left, Seager scored, Grossman to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TEX -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 62.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +13 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +85 Elo | TEX 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 3026–40 | Road vs home | 18–4830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–78 | 59–72 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–51 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 30–27 | 53–69 |
| Overs–unders | 60–70–1 | 62–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–1 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.