Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKinstry singled to left, Meadows scored, Vierling to second.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 7Keith singled to right, Greene scored, Vierling to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Vierling singled to right, Meadows scored, Greene to second.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Lee doubled to left, Benintendi scored, Vaughn to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Sosa singled to right, Sheets scored, Lee to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Dingler singled to left, Jung scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Vierling doubled to left, Greene scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML DET -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- DET: Elo 65.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −24 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +114 Elo | DET 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 18–4430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–61 | 59–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–32 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 53–65 |
| Overs–unders | 67–60 | 59–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 13–6 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.