Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Corey JulksBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Ky BushPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKinstry homered to right (377 feet), Rogers scored.13–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–4
- 9Keith homered to center (409 feet), Greene scored.11–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 211–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–4
- 7Vaughn singled to center, Robert Jr. scored, Sosa to second.9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 4Rogers singled to center, Greene scored and Torkelson scored.9–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 4Torkelson singled to left, Vierling scored, Greene to second.7–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Greene grounded into fielder's choice to first, Kreidler scored, Jung out at second, Vierling to third.6–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 3Vaughn singled to center, Julks scored, Robert Jr. to second.5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3Robert Jr. singled to left, Baldwin scored, Julks to second.5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Julks singled to right, Fletcher scored, Baldwin to third.5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 3Meadows singled to center, Rogers scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 67%
- ML DET -230 / CHW +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- DET: Elo 62.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -202
- CHW +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +19 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Ky Bush: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +91 Elo | DET 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 68.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–34 | Road vs home | 18–4530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–61 | 59–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–32 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 53–66 |
| Overs–unders | 67–61 | 59–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 14–6 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.