Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan SammonsPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Keith doubled to right, Greene scored on error and Meadows scored, Keith safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Julks.9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 7Julks hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 7Ibáñez homered to left (397 feet), Torkelson scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 5Sweeney singled to center, Jung scored, Ibáñez to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Ibáñez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Keith scored, Torkelson out at second, Jung to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Jung singled to right, Carpenter scored, Keith to second.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Meadows tripled to left, McKinstry scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Vaughn homered to left center (414 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Keith singled to right, Carpenter scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Vaughn doubled to right, Benintendi scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML DET -155 / CHW +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- DET: Elo 64.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.1 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +100 Elo | DET 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 16th of 3033–34 | Road vs home | 18–4630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–61 | 59–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–32 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 53–67 |
| Overs–unders | 68–61 | 60–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 15–6 CHW in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.