Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ty MaddenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to right (386 feet).6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 7Torkelson homered to center (439 feet), Keith scored and Jung scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 7Jung singled to left, Vierling scored, Keith to second.3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Meadows homered to right center (415 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Keith singled to left, Carpenter scored, Keith to second, Vierling to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Vaughn singled to right, Lopez scored on error, Robert Jr. to second, Vaughn to second, Robert Jr. safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Vierling.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to left, Robert Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML DET -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.3 pts
- DET: Elo 64.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −9 | DET: Ty Madden (no track record yet) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +106 Elo | DET 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 15th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 18–4730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–61 | 59–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–32 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 53–68 |
| Overs–unders | 69–61 | 61–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 16–6 CHW in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 22.