Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick NastriniPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi homered to right (386 feet).2–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Langford grounded out to third, Lowe scored, Jung to second.2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Seager homered to right (406 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 71%
- ML TEX -285 / CHW +230
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 65.2%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -244
- CHW +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.2 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Nick Nastrini: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +109 Elo | TEX 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 68.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–40 | Road vs home | 18–5030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–79 | 60–73 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–52 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 30–27 | 54–70 |
| Overs–unders | 60–72–1 | 62–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–1 CHW in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.