New York Yankees at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Jose TenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Volpe grounded out to shortstop, Chisholm Jr. scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 32–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Judge grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, LeMahieu scored, Soto out at second, Torres to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Crews scored on error, Gallo safe at first on fielding error by first baseman LeMahieu.0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Tena homered to center (405 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Chaparro homered to left (376 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Gallo grounded out to second, Tena scored, Crews to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 67%
- ML NYY -235 / WSH +195
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.4%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -207
- WSH +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −4 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +66 Elo | NYY 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 3042–24 | Road vs home | 30–3426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–60 | 72–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–55 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 61–44 |
| Overs–unders | 74–55–1 | 64–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.