Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake CaveBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Alex VerdugoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cave homered to center (418 feet), Toglia scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 39–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 5Toglia homered to center (422 feet).7–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 37–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 4Verdugo homered to center (402 feet).6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 3Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Torres scored, Wells to third.6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Jones doubled to center, Cave scored and Toglia scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Cave singled to left, Doyle scored, Toglia to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Doyle singled to center, Tovar scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Jones hit sacrifice fly to center, Toglia scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1McMahon singled to left, Tovar scored, McMahon to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 72%
- ML COL +240 / NYY -300
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 66.2%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 5.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −3 | COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +117 Elo | NYY 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 70.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–49 | Road vs home | 35–2812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–62 | 68–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 42–54 |
| Underdog | 62–56 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 67–58 | 72–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–2 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.