Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torres homered to left (339 feet), Verdugo scored and LeMahieu scored.3–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 13–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–10
- 7Stanton homered to center (425 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 7Judge homered to right center (377 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Soto homered to right center (418 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5McMahon doubled to right, Doyle scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Romo singled to right, Cave scored, Romo out stretching at second.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Soto singled to right, LeMahieu scored, Torres to third.1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Torres singled to left, Verdugo scored, LeMahieu to second.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Judge homered to center (431 feet), Torres scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Doyle grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Blackmon scored, Tovar out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 69%
- ML COL +210 / NYY -255
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 67.1%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -223
- COL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +124 Elo | NYY 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 69.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 3019–49 | Road vs home | 35–2913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–62 | 68–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 42–55 |
| Underdog | 63–56 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 68–58 | 73–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–2 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.