New York Yankees at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young homered to left center (400 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right (391 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Yepez homered to left center (432 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6LeMahieu hit sacrifice fly to left, Volpe scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Wells homered to right (401 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4LeMahieu hit sacrifice fly to right, Volpe scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Torres homered to left (366 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML NYY -190 / WSH +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +43 Elo | NYY 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3041–24 | Road vs home | 30–3326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–60 | 72–59 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–55 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 61–43 |
| Overs–unders | 74–54–1 | 64–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.