St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting5-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar homered to center (429 feet), Walker scored.14–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play14–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking14–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking14–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 314–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 214–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–7
- 7Winn reached on bunt single to pitcher, Scott II scored on error, Winn safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Bickford.12–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–7
- 7Scott II doubled to right, Nootbaar scored.11–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 311–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 211–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 111–7
- 7Nootbaar doubled to right, Arenado scored, Walker scored and Herrera scored.10–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging10–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 210–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–7
- 6Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Rizzo scored, Volpe to third.7–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 6Volpe singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Rizzo to second.7–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 5Torres singled to left, Volpe scored, Verdugo to second.7–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Verdugo singled to right, Rizzo scored, Volpe to second.7–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 69%
- ML STL +205 / NYY -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.2%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -218
- STL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 5.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +65 Elo | NYY 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 37–3014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–69 | 71–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–42 | 45–58 |
| Underdog | 46–27 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 65–68–2 | 76–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–2 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.