St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stanton doubled to left, Volpe scored, Wells scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Volpe reached on infield single to pitcher, Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Wells to third.6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Herrera scored on throwing error by catcher Wells.6–1
- 6Herrera scored on throwing error by catcher Wells.6–1
- 6Herrera doubled to left, Nootbaar scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Donovan homered to right (334 feet), Burleson scored and Arenado scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Arenado singled to center, Winn scored, Burleson to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Volpe singled to left, Wells scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML STL +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −13 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +69 Elo | NYY 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 37–2912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–69 | 71–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–42 | 45–57 |
| Underdog | 45–27 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 64–68–2 | 75–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.