St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells homered to right center (413 feet), Torres scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Arenado homered to left center (378 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 3Wells homered to right center (399 feet), Soto scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 3Soto doubled to center, Torres scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Goldschmidt singled to center, Arenado scored, Donovan to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Donovan singled to right, Burleson scored, Arenado to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Volpe hit sacrifice fly to right, Stanton scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML STL +155 / NYY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +54 Elo | NYY 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 36–2912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–68 | 70–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–42 | 44–57 |
| Underdog | 45–26 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 63–68–2 | 74–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–1 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.