New York Yankees at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Judge singled to right, Verdugo scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Crews doubled to left, Young scored, Nuñez thrown out at home.1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Wood singled to left, Nuñez scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Nuñez singled to left, Young scored, Nuñez to second.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to center (411 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Wood scored on a balk, Chaparro to second on a balk.0–2
- 1Wood scored on a balk, Chaparro to second on a balk.0–2
- 1Crews homered to left center (399 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML NYY -210 / WSH +175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -186
- WSH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +1 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +59 Elo | NYY 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3042–25 | Road vs home | 31–3424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–61 | 73–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–56 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 62–44 |
| Overs–unders | 74–56–1 | 64–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.