Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jung homered to right (348 feet), Jankowski scored and Langford scored.4–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 10García singled to center, Semien scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Gelof doubled to left, Brown scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 10Brown tripled to right, Langeliers scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Schuemann singled to center, Gelof scored, Schuemann out stretching at second.2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Rooker singled to right, Wilson scored, Butler to second.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Smith singled to right, Foscue scored, Seager to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1García doubled to center, Seager scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML OAK +110 / TEX -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- OAK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Walter Pennington (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +60 Elo | TEX 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–42 | Road vs home | 35–3216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–61 | 54–82 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 24–55 |
| Underdog | 65–51 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders | 63–72 | 61–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 8–14 TEX in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.