Oakland Athletics at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting3-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Julian AguiarPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Friedl singled to right, De La Cruz scored and India scored, Stephenson to second.9–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–10
- 9Stephenson singled to left, Hinds scored, De La Cruz to second, India to third.9–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–8
- 9Brown singled to right, Rooker scored and Bleday scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–7
- 9Butler homered to right (427 feet).7–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 6India sacrificed into double play, center to third, Smith scored, Espinal thrown out at third.6–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 6Rosario hit by pitch, France scored, Espinal to second, Smith to third.6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Espinal walked, Friedl scored, Smith to second, France to third.6–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 46–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 5De La Cruz grounded out to first, Smith scored, India to second, Espinal to third.6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5India walked, France scored, Espinal to second, Smith to third.6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 46–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 36–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Stephenson homered to right center (377 feet).6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML OAK +115 / CIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 58.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- OAK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.0 – 5.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | OAK: J.T. Ginn (no track record yet) · CIN: Julian Aguiar: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +62 Elo | CIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3025–40 | Road vs home | 31–3626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–61 | 73–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 62–51 | 43–23 |
| Overs–unders | 61–71 | 64–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–2 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.